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Canadian Economics

Signal49 Research is Canada’s largest private economic analysis and forecasting unit, offering a comprehensive suite of regional and industry-level forecasts, custom research, and economic data services. Powered by expert economists and advanced modelling, our timely insights help you understand the impact of macroeconomic trends, plan for a shifting economic landscape, and stay ahead of changing market conditions.

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Featured Research

Ontario budget, Ontario landscape
Series:Provincial Fiscal Outlook

Ontario Budget 2026: Another Province with Bigger-than-expected Deficits

Persistent trade tensions with the United States and global economic uncertainty have once again disrupted Ontario’s fiscal outlook, leading to an expected deficit of $13.8 billion for fiscal year 2026–27,…
Topics: Provincial Economic Analysis
Subject Matter: Business Research, Canada Budget
Economic Forecast, Economy Analysis, Energy Economics, Fiscal Updates, GDP Canada, Healthcare in Canada, Household in Economics, Housing Market Forecast, Inflation Impact, Interest Rate, Oil and Gas, Ontario, Salary Research, Trade Export and Import
Commentary
March 27, 2026 5-min read

Deepening Canada–Ireland Trade and Investment—September 2025

Beyond Barriers: Deepening Canada–Ireland Trade and Investment Canada and Ireland have cultivated a dynamic and resilient economic relationship, nearly doubling trade since the implementation of the Canada-European Union Comprehensive Economic…
Topics: Canadian Economic Analysis, Global Economic Analysis
Subject Matter: Business Research, Economy Analysis
GDP Canada, Industry Analysis, Innovation and Growth, Population Research, Tourism Analysis, Trade Export and Import, World Economy
Impact paper, Summary for executives​
September 25, 2025 32 min read
Series:Provincial Fiscal Outlook

Quebec’s Prudent Path to Balance Narrows: Our Analysis of the Quebec Budget 2026

Français The province’s deficit for fiscal year (FY) 2026-27 is projected to be $6.3 billion, down from $7.1 billion from the autumn fiscal update. The deficit is forecast to gradually…
Topics: Provincial Economic Analysis
Subject Matter: Business Research, Canada Budget
Consumer Trends, Economic Forecast, Economy Analysis, Education in Canada, Fiscal Updates, GDP Canada, Health Care Economics, Healthcare in Canada, Household in Economics, Industry Analysis, Innovation and Growth, Innovation Economy, Innovation Policy Strategy, Population Research, Québec, Tariffs, Trade Export and Import
Commentary
March 19, 2026 4-min read
Series:Industry Lens

inFact subscribers or purchase required. to access.

Industry Lens: Agriculture—March 2026

Outgrowing Its Own Margins In the latter half of the decade, Canada’s agriculture industry will be shaped by slower global economic growth, heightened geopolitical fragmentation, increased climate variability, and rising…
Topics: Industry Economic Analysis
Subject Matter: Business Research, Economic Forecast
Economy Analysis, Extreme Weather, Industry Analysis, Labour Market, Tariffs, Trade Export and Import
Online Experience
March 19, 2026 13 min read
Series:Interest Rate Announcement

Bank of Canada Holds Policy Rate Amid Middle East Uncertainty

The Bank of Canada held the target for the overnight rate at 2.25 per cent, with the Bank Rate at 2.50 per cent and the deposit rate at 2.20 per…
Topics: Business and Household Indicators, Canadian Economic Analysis
Global Economic Analysis
Subject Matter: Canada Budget, Consumer Trends
Economy Analysis, Energy Economics, GDP Canada, Inflation Impact, Interest Rate, Oil and Gas, Tariffs, Trade Export and Import
Quick Take
March 18, 2026 3-min read
Series:Provincial 5-Year Outlook

inFact subscribers or purchase required. to access.

Provincial Five-Year Outlook—March 2026

Hoping for Stability This quarter, we look at the effects of stalled population growth and ongoing trade uncertainty on provincial economies across the country. How much will federal efforts to…
Topics: Provincial Economic Analysis
Subject Matter: 5 Year Outlook, Business Research
Canada Budget, Consumer Trends, Economic Forecast, Economy Analysis, Employment Rate in Canada, Energy Economics, GDP Canada, Household in Economics, Immigrants Coming to Canada, Immigration Policies in Canada, Industry Analysis, Inflation Impact, Labour Market, Oil and Gas, Population Research, Provincial Research, Tariffs, Trade Export and Import
Online Experience
March 4, 2026 18 min read
Series:Provincial Fiscal Outlook

Soft Oil Prices Take a Toll on the Books: Our Analysis of the Alberta Budget 2026

The province is forecasting a deficit of $9.4 billion for fiscal year 2026–27, with expected shortfalls of $7.6 billion in 2027–28 and $6.9 billion in 2028–29. These figures are significantly…
Topics: Provincial Economic Analysis
Subject Matter: Alberta, Canada Budget
Economic Forecast, Economy Analysis, Fiscal Updates, GDP Canada, Industry Analysis, Labour Market, Oil and Gas, Provincial Research, Tariffs
Commentary
February 27, 2026 5-min read

Following Career Paths to Forecast Skills—February 2026

From Jobs to Journeys: Enhancing Forecasts With the Career Paths and Skill Transformations Model In this research, we delve into the Career Paths and Skill Transformations (CaST) model, which leverages…
Topics: Canadian Economic Analysis, Skills and Workforce Development
Subject Matter: Economic Forecast, Economy Analysis
Education in Canada, Job Transitions, Labour Market, Post Secondary Education in Canada, Salary Research
Primer
February 26, 2026 28 min read

Bold Ideas Toronto Listening Tour—February 2026

Bold Ideas for Canada: Toronto | February 4–5, 2026 Canada has the capacity to lead in a rapidly changing world if we are prepared to think bigger and act with…
Topics: Canadian Economic Analysis, DEI Research
Health and Healthcare, Indigenous Communities, Skills and Workforce Development, Technology and Innovation Analysis
Subject Matter: Artificial Intelligence, Business Research
Climate Change Adaptation, Economy Analysis, Education in Canada, First Nations in Canada, Future of Work, Health Services Research, Healthcare in Canada, Inclusive Growth, Innovation and Growth, Innovation Policy Strategy, Labour Market, Northern Canada, Post Secondary Education in Canada, Salary Research, Trade Export and Import
Listening Tour Insights
February 25, 2026 36 min read
Series:Provincial Fiscal Outlook

Debt to Balloon as Province Attempts to Maintain Core Services: Our Analysis of the British Columbia Budget 2026

British Columbia is anticipating a deficit of $9.6 billion in fiscal year 2025-26. Despite being lower than government projections of $11.2 billion issued in the fall of last year, it…
Topics: Provincial Economic Analysis
Subject Matter: British Columbia, Business Research
Canada Budget, Economic Forecast, Economy Analysis, Fiscal Updates, GDP Canada, Health Care Economics, Industry Analysis, Labour Market, Provincial Research, Tariffs, Trade Export and Import
Commentary
February 18, 2026 5-min read
Series:Provincial Fiscal Outlook

inFact subscribers or purchase required. to access.

Provincial Fiscal Outlook—July 2025

Deficits to Gradually Narrow Provincial governments across Canada are facing fiscal challenges. Most are struggling to balance their books amid spending pressures, as pandemic-related interest costs linger, and a rising…
Topics: Canadian Economic Analysis, Provincial Economic Analysis
Subject Matter: Atlantic Canada, Business Research
Canada Budget, Economic Forecast, Economy Analysis, Education in Canada, Energy Economics, GDP Canada, Healthcare in Canada, Household in Economics, Housing Market Forecast, Immigrants Coming to Canada, Immigration Policies in Canada, Industry Analysis, Interest Rate, Oil and Gas, Population Research, Provincial Research, Sustainable Finance, Tariffs, Trade Export and Import
Online Experience
July 29, 2025 20 min read

Understanding the Influence of AI on Employment—January 2026

Understanding the Influence of AI on Employment This issue briefing uses a new framework to estimate the exposure of different job tasks to new technologies such as AI, the potential…
Topics: Canadian Economic Analysis, Technology and Innovation Analysis
Subject Matter: Artificial Intelligence, Business Research
Corporate Innovation, Economic Forecast, Emerging Technologies, Employment Rate in Canada, Impact of Automation on Employment, Industry Analysis, Innovation and Growth, Innovation Strategy, Job Transitions, Jobs at Risk of Automation, Labour Market, Trade Export and Import
Issue briefing​
January 6, 2026 28 min read

Latest Research

Ontario budget, Ontario landscape
Series:Provincial Fiscal Outlook

Ontario Budget 2026: Another Province with Bigger-than-expected Deficits

Persistent trade tensions with the United States and global economic uncertainty have once again disrupted Ontario’s fiscal outlook, leading to an expected deficit of $13.8 billion for fiscal year 2026–27,…
Topics: Provincial Economic Analysis
Subject Matter: Business Research, Canada Budget
Economic Forecast, Economy Analysis, Energy Economics, Fiscal Updates, GDP Canada, Healthcare in Canada, Household in Economics, Housing Market Forecast, Inflation Impact, Interest Rate, Oil and Gas, Ontario, Salary Research, Trade Export and Import
Commentary
March 27, 2026 5-min read
Series:Major City Insights

inFact subscribers or purchase required. to access.

Major City Insights: London—March 2026

Healthcare and manufacturing to drive city’s 2027 rebound This quarter, we assess the headwinds facing London’s economy, particularly trade tensions and stalled population growth. Despite these challenges, which sectors of…
Topics: Urban City Economic Analysis
Subject Matter: Business Research, Canadian Cities
Economic Forecast, Economy Analysis, Employment Rate in Canada, Health Services Research, Housing Market Forecast, Industry Analysis, Labour Market, Metro Housing, Population Research, Tariffs, Trade Export and Import
Online Experience
March 27, 2026 10 min read
Series:Major City Insights

inFact subscribers or purchase required. to access.

Major City Insights: Greater Sudbury—March 2026

Soft Nickel Prices Impair Local Economy More Than The Trade War This quarter, we assess the effects of weak nickel prices on Sudbury’s economy. Which sectors of the local economy…
Topics: Urban City Economic Analysis
Subject Matter: Canadian Cities, Economic Forecast
Economy Analysis, Employment Rate in Canada, GDP Canada, Housing Market Forecast, Immigrants Coming to Canada, Immigration Policies in Canada, Industry Analysis, Labour Market, Metro Housing, Population Research, Tariffs, Trade Export and Import
Online Experience
March 26, 2026 10 min read
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