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Canadian Economics

Signal49 Research is Canada’s largest private economic analysis and forecasting unit, offering a comprehensive suite of regional and industry-level forecasts, custom research, and economic data services. Powered by expert economists and advanced modelling, our timely insights help you understand the impact of macroeconomic trends, plan for a shifting economic landscape, and stay ahead of changing market conditions.

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Featured Research

Series:Interest Rate Announcement

Interest Rate Announcement: Bank of Canada Holds at 2.25 Per Cent

The Bank of Canada held the overnight rate at 2.25 per cent, the Bank Rate at 2.50 per cent, and the deposit rate at 2.20 per cent, the fifth consecutive…
Topics: Canadian Economic Analysis, Final: Business and Household Indicators
Subject Matter: Economy Analysis, Interest Rate
Quick Take
June 10, 2026 3-min read

A Decade of the Balance Calories Initiative—May 2026

A Decade of Calorie Reduction: An Analysis of the Non-Alcoholic Beverage Sector’s Balance Calories Initiative In this research, we explore the progress made toward the non-alcoholic beverage sector’s Balance Calories…
Topics: Industry Economic Analysis
Subject Matter: Consumer Trends, Economy Analysis
Health Policy, Industry Analysis
Data briefing​
May 26, 2026 11 min read
Series:Interest Rate Announcement

Rates Unchanged As Bank Sees Inflation Spike As Temporary

The Bank of Canada held the overnight rate at 2.25 per cent, the Bank Rate at 2.50 per cent, and the deposit rate at 2.20 per cent, the fourth consecutive…
Topics: Business and Household Indicators, Canadian Economic Analysis
Global Economic Analysis
Subject Matter: Economic Forecast, Economy Analysis
Employment Rate in Canada, Energy Economics, GDP Canada, Household in Economics, Inflation Impact, Interest Rate, Oil and Gas, Population Research, Tariffs, Trade Export and Import, World Economy
Quick Take
April 29, 2026 3-min read
Series:Provincial Fiscal Outlook

Federal Spring Economic Update 2026: Sticking to the Plan

Français The spring economic update showed that the federal government is doubling down on its plan to build the nation, with most policy measures focused on boosting private investment. A…
Topics: Canadian Economic Analysis
Subject Matter: Business Research, Canada Budget
Economic Forecast, Economy Analysis, Energy Economics, Fiscal Updates, GDP Canada, Household in Economics, Housing Market Forecast, Innovation and Growth, Labour Market, Oil and Gas, Trade Export and Import
Commentary
April 29, 2026 10-min read

Rethinking How Canada Forecasts Skills Supply—April 2026

From Jobs to Journeys: Rethinking How Canada Forecasts Skills Supply Most tools for forecasting skills supply are outdated. In this report, we highlight our new skills forecasting model—the Career Paths…
Topics: Canadian Economic Analysis, Skills and Workforce Development
Subject Matter: Business Research, Employment Rate in Canada
Future of Work, Job Transitions, Labour Market, Post Secondary Education in Canada, Salary Research, Upskilling the Workforce
Summary for executives​
April 7, 2026 3 min read
Ontario budget, Ontario landscape
Series:Provincial Fiscal Outlook

Ontario Budget 2026: Another Province with Bigger-than-expected Deficits

Persistent trade tensions with the United States and global economic uncertainty have once again disrupted Ontario’s fiscal outlook, leading to an expected deficit of $13.8 billion for fiscal year 2026–27,…
Topics: Provincial Economic Analysis
Subject Matter: Business Research, Canada Budget
Economic Forecast, Economy Analysis, Energy Economics, Fiscal Updates, GDP Canada, Healthcare in Canada, Household in Economics, Housing Market Forecast, Inflation Impact, Interest Rate, Oil and Gas, Ontario, Salary Research, Trade Export and Import
Commentary
March 27, 2026 5-min read

Deepening Canada–Ireland Trade and Investment—September 2025

Beyond Barriers: Deepening Canada–Ireland Trade and Investment Canada and Ireland have cultivated a dynamic and resilient economic relationship, nearly doubling trade since the implementation of the Canada-European Union Comprehensive Economic…
Topics: Canadian Economic Analysis, Global Economic Analysis
Subject Matter: Business Research, Economy Analysis
GDP Canada, Industry Analysis, Innovation and Growth, Population Research, Tourism Analysis, Trade Export and Import, World Economy
Impact paper, Summary for executives​
September 25, 2025 32 min read
Series:Provincial Fiscal Outlook

Quebec’s Prudent Path to Balance Narrows: Our Analysis of the Quebec Budget 2026

Français The province’s deficit for fiscal year (FY) 2026-27 is projected to be $6.3 billion, down from $7.1 billion from the autumn fiscal update. The deficit is forecast to gradually…
Topics: Provincial Economic Analysis
Subject Matter: Business Research, Canada Budget
Consumer Trends, Economic Forecast, Economy Analysis, Education in Canada, Fiscal Updates, GDP Canada, Health Care Economics, Healthcare in Canada, Household in Economics, Industry Analysis, Innovation and Growth, Innovation Economy, Innovation Policy Strategy, Population Research, Québec, Tariffs, Trade Export and Import
Commentary
March 19, 2026 4-min read
Series:Industry Lens

inFact subscribers or purchase required. to access.

Industry Lens: Agriculture—March 2026

Outgrowing Its Own Margins In the latter half of the decade, Canada’s agriculture industry will be shaped by slower global economic growth, heightened geopolitical fragmentation, increased climate variability, and rising…
Topics: Industry Economic Analysis
Subject Matter: Business Research, Economic Forecast
Economy Analysis, Extreme Weather, Industry Analysis, Labour Market, Tariffs, Trade Export and Import
Online Experience
March 19, 2026 13 min read
Series:Interest Rate Announcement

Bank of Canada Holds Policy Rate Amid Middle East Uncertainty

The Bank of Canada held the target for the overnight rate at 2.25 per cent, with the Bank Rate at 2.50 per cent and the deposit rate at 2.20 per…
Topics: Business and Household Indicators, Canadian Economic Analysis
Global Economic Analysis
Subject Matter: Canada Budget, Consumer Trends
Economy Analysis, Energy Economics, GDP Canada, Inflation Impact, Interest Rate, Oil and Gas, Tariffs, Trade Export and Import
Quick Take
March 18, 2026 3-min read
Series:Provincial 5-Year Outlook

inFact subscribers or purchase required. to access.

Provincial Five-Year Outlook—March 2026

Hoping for Stability This quarter, we look at the effects of stalled population growth and ongoing trade uncertainty on provincial economies across the country. How much will federal efforts to…
Topics: Provincial Economic Analysis
Subject Matter: 5 Year Outlook, Business Research
Canada Budget, Consumer Trends, Economic Forecast, Economy Analysis, Employment Rate in Canada, Energy Economics, GDP Canada, Household in Economics, Immigrants Coming to Canada, Immigration Policies in Canada, Industry Analysis, Inflation Impact, Labour Market, Oil and Gas, Population Research, Provincial Research, Tariffs, Trade Export and Import
Online Experience
March 4, 2026 18 min read
Series:Provincial Fiscal Outlook

Soft Oil Prices Take a Toll on the Books: Our Analysis of the Alberta Budget 2026

The province is forecasting a deficit of $9.4 billion for fiscal year 2026–27, with expected shortfalls of $7.6 billion in 2027–28 and $6.9 billion in 2028–29. These figures are significantly…
Topics: Provincial Economic Analysis
Subject Matter: Alberta, Canada Budget
Economic Forecast, Economy Analysis, Fiscal Updates, GDP Canada, Industry Analysis, Labour Market, Oil and Gas, Provincial Research, Tariffs
Commentary
February 27, 2026 5-min read

Latest Research

Series:Canadians’ Inflation Expectations

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Canadians’ Inflation Expectations for May 2026

Three-Year Inflation Expectations Partly Reverse April’s Increase Canadians’ inflation expectations eased somewhat in May, with the average one-year inflation expectation remaining firm at 3.4 per cent and the average three-year…
Topics: Business and Household Indicators, Canadian Economic Analysis
Subject Matter: Atlantic Canada, Consumer Trends
Economy Analysis, Employment Rate in Canada, Household in Economics, Inflation Impact, Oil and Gas, Provincial Research, Salary Research
Online Experience
June 16, 2026 3 min read
Series:Territorial Outlook

inFact subscribers or purchase required. to access.

Territorial 20-Year Outlook—June 2026

The Brink of Change In this semi-annual report, we provide the economic and fiscal outlook for Nunavut, the Northwest Territories, and Yukon. What do federal attempts to bolster national defence…
Topics: Business and Household Indicators, Provincial Economic Analysis
Subject Matter: Business Research, Canadian Territories
Consumer Trends, Economic Forecast, Economy Analysis, Emerging Technologies, Energy Economics, GDP Canada, Immigrant Labour Integration, Immigrants Coming to Canada, Immigration Policies in Canada, Labour Market, Northern Canada, Northwest Territories, Nunavut Territory, Oil and Gas, Population Research, Trade Export and Import, Yukon Territory
Online Experience
June 15, 2026 5 min read
Series:Territorial Outlook

inFact subscribers or purchase required. to access.

Nunavut’s 20-Year Outlook—June 2026

Arctic Ambition and Actualities In this semi-annual report, we assess Nunavut’s economy. What does a high gold price environment mean for the territory’s economy? Despite a broadly positive outlook, what…
Topics: Business and Household Indicators, Provincial Economic Analysis
Subject Matter: Business Research, Canada Budget
Canadian Territories, Consumer Trends, Economic Forecast, Economy Analysis, Employment Rate in Canada, GDP Canada, Household in Economics, Housing Market Forecast, Immigrant Labour Integration, Immigrants Coming to Canada, Immigrants in the Workplace, Industry Analysis, Inflation Impact, Interest Rate, Labour Market, Northern Canada, Nunavut Territory, Oil and Gas, Population Research, Salary Research
Online Experience
June 15, 2026 15 min read
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